SSN 11y Running Mean artefacts

SIDC monthly SSN is filtered with a triple running mean filter to remove variation faster than 12 months.

The Hathaway estimation for remainder of cycle 24 is appended and cycle 24 is repeated as a simple estimation for cycle 25, as detailed below

This permits an good 11y filter (triple running mean) to be compared to a straight running mean.

The artefacts of the running mean are clear and in many places are out of phase with the SSN data: eg. the 1986 solar minimum and 1990 max. Indeed, it is clear that there is variability on a scale of less than 11y in this part of running mean output.

The relatively steep drop from 2003-2008 can be seen to be an artefact of the defective filter.

Extending using estimated SSN:

The Hathaway estimation of the remainder of c24 stops in 2020. The SSN at that point is drawn back to where it meets the actual data of c23: 2007.75

2020-2007.75 is taken as the length of c24.

2008.8 is minimum of the c24 estimation.

The simplistic assumption that c25 will resemble c24 is used to collate a replica of c24 to the Hathaway estimation.

This gives a rough estimation of magnitude and timing of c25 that helps fill out filter buffer and since it is just the tail, it should not perturb the result unduly.

data sources:
http://sidc.oma.be/DATA/monthssn.dat http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.txt”