Tropical top of atmosphere ( TOA ) radiation measurements are compared to temperature of the lower stratosphere ( TLS ) from satellite based passive microwave sounding data.
TLS is filtered with a low pass filter to remove the annual variation.
Top of atmosphere, reflected short-wave ( SW ) radiation has had the annual variability removed by subtraction of the annual cycle. Since major eruptions have a notable effect on the annual variations an adaptive method is applied that is detailed here:
There is an apparently permanent drop down in net reflected SW at TOA of approximately 1.8 W/m2. This is synchronous with the change in TLS.
Linear regression of unfiltered tropical TLS, from the annual peak at 1994.63 to the annual peak at 2013.63 :
m_lin = 0.00130434 +/- 0.005792 (444%)
c = 205.534 +/- 0.06168 (0.03001%)
Statistically indistinguishable from zero. No detectable recovery towards pre-eruption values.
There is very little lag between the change in reflected SW and the temperature change, indicating a rapid equilibration. Due to the rarefied nature of the stratosphere this is unsurprising.
Data source: University of Alabama, Huntsville: temperature of the lower stratosphere from satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU) data.
Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) Top of atmosphere radiation measurements: